Rising sea levels pose a threat but Indian scientist says the study has flaws
- by Dibyaroop-bose
- Nov 02, 2019 14:41
More than 30 crores of the world population, including 3.5 crores in India, may lose their homes to high tide floods in the next 30 years. This risk for the world is three times higher than the earlier studies' estimates while Indians would face seven times higher risk from the rising sea levels than previously believed, a new research shows.
According to the new 'sophisticated' study, the number at risk in India has risen sevenfold to 3.5 crores. But an Indian scientist has challenged their findings and said that the study has flaws. "The newly released elevation model and the risk scenarios have to be used with caution in the Indian context. The model has been trained and tested with datasets from the US and Australia which was later used to create a new terrain model for the entire globe and has not been tested in India with ground data," Raj Bhagat Palanichamy, GIS and remote sensing expert, working on urban development and water resources told India Today TV. Glaciers are melting and the sea level is rising.
The home of more than 3 crore Indians who are living in different coastal areas of the country will be wiped out, a new study conducted under climate central, led by scientists Scott A. Kulp and Benjamin H. Strauss and published by Nature communication has said. The people who are living in low lying coastal areas may face seven times more risk than earlier estimates. The upward and more sophisticated revision of sea-level shows more than 3.5 crore population is at risk in India. From Mumbai to Kolkata and Chennai to central Kerala along with some parts of Gujarat, these areas will face a colossal risk in the next 30 years.
According to the study, the most significant change in estimates was in Asia and especially in India, which is the world's second most populated country. The numbers at risk of an annual flood by 2050 increased more than eightfold in Bangladesh, sevenfold in India, twelvefold in Thailand and threefold in China. What the new study said about India Low-lying coastal areas of Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai is already in the line of fire, but the new study said that the tidal water cover area would reach more places by the next 30 years if carbon emission is not cut down. These Indian cities, along with some parts of central Kerala and Gujarat, will get flooded at least once a year by 2050. More than 3.1 crore Indians live in coastal areas, which could jump to 3.5 crores in the next 30 years.
Mumbai From Dadar to Kandivali in Mumbai and Jawahar Lal Nehru Port to Kharghar in new Mumbai will be wiped out by 2050 if the latest study of US-based climate think tank climate control is accurate. Similarly, the other metropolitan cities of India like Kolkata and Chennai will also face a massive risk due to global warming, according to climate control data. Kolkata Located on the banks of Hooghly, Kolkata is one of the megacities of India that will face more risk than any other city in the country.
According to central climate data, about 30 percent of homes in low-lying habitats will get erased in the next 30 years. Chennai The similar effect of global warming is also being expected in Chennai. According to the map, based on climate central data flood, the flood will enter areas like Perambur to Purasaivakkam and also the main Chennai city. Some parts of the central Kerala and Gujarat are also in the high-risk zone of sea-level rise. Kerala Gujarat But the high-risk estimate is under suspicion. "Some of the input parameters that were used in the model are also very coarse and don't reflect the actual on-ground situation in India.
For some of the known locations, the model appears to overestimate the risks. Because of these issues, caution needs to be exercised when using the data as it can give false positives as well as false negatives. In order to avoid these data-related issues, it is ideal that our governments should initiate detailed mapping exercises along the coast to create better maps which could lead to better preparedness," Raj further explained to India Today TV. However, scientists Kulp and Strauss said in their latest estimate, "We present Extreme Coastal Water Level (ECWL) exposure assessments that address
This problem by employing Coastal DEM, a new DEM developed using a neural network to perform nonlinear, nonparametric regression analysis of SRTM error. This model incorporates 23 variables, including population and vegetation indices, and was trained using lidar-derived elevation data in the US as ground truth". Carbon emission is a reality, but the same time carbon footprint is also a parameter to address the real cause of the problem. However, anything between a 1-2 meter rise in sea level will create havoc and respected policymakers should take note.
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